Yet though more critical of China, the tone has remained noticeably diplomatic. New energy paradigms demand new strategic commodities. ... April 22, 2020; ... four times the current price. Misguided US policy towards Shia-led countries in the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Syria) was pushing the region towards instability, we warned back in January. That’s good news for the climate change fight that was coming in 2020; that’s worse news for the climate change fight overall that still needs to be had down the line. China, meanwhile, has been pushing the story that the coronavirus was bioengineered in a US army lab. As of this writing, Latin America has yet to be hit as hard from Coronavirus as Asia and Europe, but that may be just a matter of time. Oil Collapse and Covid-19 Create Toxic Geopolitical Stew. Ethiopia: A Geopolitical Time Bomb in the Making, Russia and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal under a Biden Presidency, Backgrounder: Evolution of Organized Crime in Mexico. In the RCEP trade agreement, governments across Asia have charted an economic future for themselves – one that excludes the United States. Back in January, we flagged that as bad as the tech war between the U.S. and … Now both the U.S. and Iran are struggling to deal with their own domestic outbreaks of the coronavirus, meaning that both sides have even less incentive to go to war with one another. We will keep tracking developments, helping make sense of what coronavirus means for both politics and markets going forward. Volume 25, 2020 Vol 24, 2019 Vol 23, 2018 Vol 22, 2017 Vol 21, 2016 Vol 20, 2015 Vol 19, 2014 Vol 18, 2013 Vol 17, 2012 Vol 16, 2011 Vol 15, 2010 Vol 14, 2009 Vol 13, 2008 Vol 12, 2007 Vol 11, 2006 Vol 10, 2005 Vol 9, 2004 Vol 8, 2003 Vol 7, 2002 Vol 6, 2001 Vol 5, 2000 Vol 4, 1999 Vol 3, 1998 We continue to be worried about that… but so far India has managed to handle the coronavirus outbreak quite well. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, often labeled ‘soft’ on Beijing, has recently adopted tougher rhetoric on the South China Sea. Tuesday, October 13, 2020 By: Jumaina Siddiqui; Cyril Almeida. In Karachi, Flooding Lays Bare City’s Governance Issues. A medical worker wearing a protective suit collects sample from a migrant worker for a nucleic acid test for the COVID-19 coronavirus at a construction site amid the coronavirus outbreak on March 13, 2020 in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province of China. on. Verdict: Coronavirus SIGNIFICANTLY decreases this risk (for now). Before coronavirus, we expected 2020 to be a year when these MNCs would face calls for more action on social issues like climate change and the battle against poverty, all while they struggled to satisfy shareholders in a slowing global economic environment. The year 2020 certainly got off to a bang with tensions between the U.S. and Iran high amid Tehran-backed protests in Iraq and experts believe that geopolitical … All this, and we’re still in the early days of the coronavirus changing life as we know it. Situation Reports - November 23, 2020 Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, often labeled ‘soft’ on Beijing, has recently adopted tougher rhetoric on the South China Sea. 5 months ago. New energy paradigms demand new strategic commodities. Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations. Europe has been a geopolitical nonentity since the 1990s. Many parts of Pakistan have always struggled with flooding, especially over the last decade, due in part to climate change as weather events have become more extreme. As such, I’ve revisited our Top Risks 2020 that we published back in January and have updated them (the first time in our history we’ve ever done that) with the potential impact that the coronavirus will have on each of them. Add in the impending strain of coronavirus, and it’s possible Erdogan lashes out in new and even more unpredictable ways as he struggles to maintain both power and popularity. Examining three of the most water-stressed countries in the world according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). Current Issue. The Great Decoupling. That pressure was already mounting given high-profile defections from his ruling AK Party, a softening Turkish economy and costly military adventurism in Syria that has seriously strained Turkey’s relations with both Russia and the European Union. modified & truncated release to the public of a geopolitical round-up issued on 26 June 2020… Its resurgence in the first decade of the 21st century was one of the many unintended outcomes of US military adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Verdict: Coronavirus neither increases nor decreases this risk significantly. United States International Human Rights Climate Change Election 2020. By Lucja Cannon • August 5, 2020. Published. News about upcoming issues, contributors, special events, online features, and more. Not good. Timeline: The Downward Spiral of China-Australia Relations, Backgrounder: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Water Scarcity Monitor: Saudi Arabia, Spain, and Chile, Backgrounder: Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean Conflict, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Lithium Demand, UK Economy Battered by Dual Reckoning of COVID-19 and Brexit, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Lithium Supply, China’s Foreign Policy Adrift upon Rivers of Sand, Japan-Australia Defense Treaty: US Allies Adapting to New Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, Decoding Duterte’s Shifting Stance on the South China Sea Dispute, White House Transition to Continue Trajectory of US-Vietnam Relations, The Rise, Dominance, and Decline of Thailand’s Monarchy. Current economic, geopolitical and social signals are mixed, creating uncertainty across business environments and requiring companies to consider both defensive and offensive strategies. That means much more U.S.-China turbulence going forward. Relations between the private and public sector have rarely been easy. In our geopolitical outlook for 2020,1 our most important issue was the 2020 elections. Sign In Subscribe. White House Transition to Continue Trajectory of US-Vietnam Relations There are no guarantees that will be the case going forward, especially as the country is three times as crowded as China in terms of population density and has nowhere near the same kind of health and political response capacity as China. Poland is where the clash of geopolitical … Verdict: Coronavirus SIGNIFICANTLY increases this risk. Climate Change has unalterably begun moving from the political fringes into the political mainstream; 2020 was the year that climate action momentum would force a clash between activists, governments and businesses. By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. All Rights Reserved. In Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, Michael R. Auslin presents a series of essays touching on major security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our, Top Geopolitical Risks in 2020: Coronavirus Update. Yet though more critical of China, the tone has remained noticeably diplomatic. With the largest economy in the world, 450 million people, and defense spending comparable to Russia’s, the continent could be a colossus. We receive over a million unique answers (and filter out multiple submissions) to our political issues survey per day and categorize the submissions by political affiliation, state, city, and referral website, as well as census data estimates by income, race, education, and household. This, too, has been accelerated by the coronavirus, which U.S. president Donald Trump and members of his party have begun referring to as the “Wuhan virus” and “Chinese virus”. A President Biden would be unlikely to hit the ‘reset’ button in US-China relations, which suggests progress in Washington’s partnership with Hanoi. Yet Europe has never come close to equaling the combined clout of its constituent countries. Geopolitical issues of Kosovo. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, left, and Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment of China Zhao Yingmin, second left, arrive for a press conference … Of the world’s top ten economies, Brazil was the only one without a single policy maker in Munich. June 26, 2020 ... the current state of affairs has forced him to give up on putting forward “great initiatives” relative to the Kosovo issue and he is waiting for proposal from the international community. President Johnson, who replaced Lincoln after the assassination, had mostly sided with white Southerners on this issue. Recent data paints a bleak picture of economic recovery in the United Kingdom. Conditioned by the geopolitical specifics of its location as viewed from the point of the Rimland theory, Russia is currently in a deadlock of choosing between its national integrity and the reconciliation with the current world leaders, including major states of Europe and the United States of America, which explains its focus on defensive power. Receive the latest from KPMG Board Leadership Center Verdict: Coronavirus increases this risk. At the same time though, a significant coronavirus outbreak in Iraq and Syria could deal real blows to two countries struggling to pick up the pieces and stabilize themselves, which U.S. policy wasn’t helping them do in the first place. Latin America was in political crisis even before coronavirus, with a newly-created middle class demanding better public services and less corruption from their leaders and not getting them. The U.S., meanwhile, sent 40 current and former lawmakers across the Atlantic — including heavyweights Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, Mitt Romney, Lindsey Graham — as well as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mike Esper. Situation Reports - November 23, 2020 Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, often labeled ‘soft’ on Beijing, has recently adopted tougher rhetoric on the South China Sea. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2020 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. Meanwhile, Biden announced the first nominations for his incoming administration’s cabinet. Those moves, for the time being, are temporary, but the longer the current global health crisis holds, the more businesses will be forced to consider making these moves permanent, deepening the divide between the U.S. and China. If it does that successfully, it may well turn its sights back onto the U.S. and China; if it doesn’t, Europe may have bigger problems on its hands, especially if it is forced to try to salvage the bloc’s battered economy with monetary policy options that are quickly dwindling. We were significantly unnerved about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s turn to Hindu nationalism when we wrote our original report back in January, a political orientation which had significant ramifications for Indian society as well as the country’s progress toward economic reforms. In the US, President Donald Trump recommended that ‘preliminary work’ for a formal transition of power to President-elect Joe Begin begins. Relatedly—we made the point a few months ago as the economic tussle between the U.S. and China intensified, the fight between the world’s two only economic superpower would transform into a broader fight of influence and values as well, coupled with national security elements as well. Viewed from the other side of the Atlantic, the coronavirus crisis will have significant geopolitical implications in the near term, becoming possibly even more significant over the next few years. Who is backing who in simmering geopolitical tensions over energy deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean? White House Transition to Continue Trajectory of US-Vietnam Relations Anglo America Geopolitics.news - November 27, 2020 0 The United States has closed at least 10 of its military bases in Afghanistan since reaching an agreement with the Taliban last February, as... Iranian commander accuses Israel of killing Iranian scientist to trigger war Middle East Geopolitics.news - November 27, 2020 0 Wei Liang—China News Service/Getty Images, Who Should Be TIME’s Person of the Year for 2020? Altogether, these essays form a comprehensive overview of the current geopolitical situation in the region from a U.S. perspective, providing ample recommendations for how the U.S. might balance against […] Tim Marshall examines the backdrop to current geopolitical struggles in Belarus When military strategists in London, Moscow, Warsaw, Washington and elsewhere look at the political chaos in Belarus they could be forgiven for thinking, ‘Mind the gap’. Executive Summary Politically, several developments have occurred. But there are no guarantees that will last, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan already has an established track record of acting erratically when he feels the political and economic pressure bearing down on him. Indeed, our entire ecosystem is at risk: 1 million animal and … And if a Coronavirus outbreak rips through India, it could push the country towards yet-more social upheaval. Verdict: While coronavirus decreases the risks of U.S. policy toward Iran, it increases them in Syria and Iraq. Deadly wildfires including those affecting Australia, hurricanes, extreme weather events, and climate-influenced migration and hunger in many parts of the world are now regular occurrences. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful … 28 Jun 2020 (delayed. The new defense pact is a concrete demonstration that Washington’s closest security partners are proactively increasing their contributions to the Indo-Pacific region. That slowing global economy remains a massive challenge for them given coronavirus and new supply chain worries, but for the time being governments have other worries aside from holding MNCs to account; what’s more, the challenges coronavirus brings offers opportunities for tech companies and pharmaceuticals to step up and help people live their lives as normally as possible during these trying times. Weekly Geopolitical Report – October 19, 2020 Page 2 treat the South as occupied territory and enforce racial equality on the region. The US has never attempted a country-wide mail-in vote or national e-voting, and in a political environment as polarized as this one, even the slightest hiccup will provide plenty of fodder for folks to denounce any election result they don’t like. As Mehdi Mozaffari (2020) underlines, the main question concerns the compatibility of the current global system with a world made up of a plurality of civilizations (where civilization is defined as world vision and historical formation). , With this in mind, we should expect politics in Europe and the US to be more focused on the current health crisis and its follow-on implications. A geopolitical lens: July 2020 Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer on the implications of COVID-19 and the geopolitical recession, including the impact on global trade and cooperation. May 18, 2020 al The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part I (NB: Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next report will be published on June 1.) Both countries have leaders who very much care how their response to coronavirus is being viewed by both domestic and international audiences—laying the blame on one another doesn’t help them contain the virus in any way, but it does help them deflect the political fallout. As with Latin America, Turkey has yet to be hit as hard as Coronavirus as other countries in the world. The numbers are in: The past decade has been the warmest in recorded history. Yet though more critical of China, the tone has remained noticeably diplomatic. In general, U.S. presidential elections are geopolitical issues because of America’s hegemonic status. It was a potent mix of factors that guaranteed roughly half the country would feel like elections were “stolen” from them if their preferred candidate didn’t win. by Ben Buchanan. While COVID-19 could be faulted for initiating the stock market decline, it is not solely to blame, DiGruttolo said. Politics. To understand China’s foreign policy toward India and bordering ASEAN countries, one must understand its national water crisis. This article examines factors impacting lithium supply over the next decade. ... Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics. Call it a wash. But as the world’s problems began to mount and governments struggled to keep up, people began looking to multinational corporations (MNCs) to help address many of the issues that were plaguing the societies in which these multinationals operated and extracted profit. ‘Geopolitical’ Europe could struggle to take shape in troublesome 2020 By Alexandra Brzozowski | EURACTIV.com 03-01-2020 (updated: 08-01-2020 ) Vote Now, What Donald Trump Can — And Can't — Do with the Pardon Power, Melania Trump's Christmas Decorations Gave the Internet the Most Wonderful Memes of the Year, Republicans Attack Joe Biden’s Budget Chief Pick Over Tweets, Sign up to receive the top stories you need to know now on politics, health and more, © 2020 TIME USA, LLC. Issues like climate change, digital disruption, and migration will act as threat multipliers in 2020, but a number of country specific threats will complicate the global chessboard as well. Updated January 14, 2020 Iran—with a population approaching 84 million and buttressed by ample oil reserves—is one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East. But despite the rhetoric, neither the U.S. nor Iran wanted a genuine military confrontation (the Soleimani assassination not withstanding). Coronavirus has sped up that timeline considerably; manufacturing and services sectors have already been forced to begin reorganizing supply chains and staff given their exposure to China. Current circumstance exacerbates these trends, especially as they relate to isolationism and the potential for a worldwide economic downturn. The third geopolitical lens is the evolution of external power engagement in Southeast Asia. And while climate change still represents the greatest physical and existential threat the world faces, the immediacy with which the issue was being treated has been supplanted by the near-term crisis of coronavirus. The majority of white Southerners opposed this policy vehemently. First in a new series, this article examines factors impacting lithium demand over the next decade. That would become apparent through increased tech regulation, stricter enforcement/utilization of trade rules and tariffs, and even increased military cooperation among the European bloc’s remaining member states. Big {Political} Data. For more commentary on this topic, see our 2020 Geopolitical Forecast. Coronavirus hasn’t just overturned daily life as we know it; it’s also upended global politics. I’ve been working on figuring out what coronavirus means for geopolitics beyond the immediate crisis that we’re in. Combined with the recent collapse of oil prices following Russia and Saudi Arabia’s decision to enter an oil-price war, leaders of oil-producing countries like Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico need to brace for some difficult weeks ahead; so too the rest of Latin America, whose health system and underlying infrastructure will be tested like never before in the coming weeks and months… all while a population already on edge watches on. Here we go: Back in January, we were worried about the legitimacy of upcoming elections given the fallout of the most politicized impeachment process in history, the near certainty of foreign interference, and presidential candidates themselves fanning conspiracy theory flames. T just overturned daily life as we know it ; it ’ s upended... Blame, DiGruttolo said weekly geopolitical Report – October 19, 2020 By: Jumaina Siddiqui ; Cyril Almeida our! Sea levels are rising, and the potential for a worldwide economic downturn, Flooding Lays Bare ’... 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