Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. That's 14 in a row. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. In 2020, a single. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. All rights reserved. 11. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. . Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. 03:30. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Contributors wanted Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. All other 21 counties voted Republican. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Ron Elving . Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Not anymore. Do you know this baby? It is easy to gloss over this. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Website Updates Paused Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. 2. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . The highest percentage being 66.1%. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. This county voted with the popular vote each time. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Want to dive deeper? (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Still, the state's worth watching. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. We believe this was a mistake. Found an error on our site? Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. 108,000 people. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Watch Hampton City. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Really stop reading. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. It also backed Gov. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? "It wasn't part of his strategy.". But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. The matters that way on their minds are real. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. 12. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Trump won the other 18 counties. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. 7. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Team up with others in your region, and help out by These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020.