In the middle of all of this, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates decided to add four million barrels of oil a day to an already glutted supply. U.S. Census Bureau. "Wildfire Premiums Could Become a 'Social Issue': Munich Re Climatologist." The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low to spur growth. Because China is the second biggest purchaser of U.S. debt, as its demand for Treasurys declines, interest rates could rise. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. The U.S. will keep 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese exports and 7.5% tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese imports.. Most economists believe the United States will tip into recession by 2021, a new survey shows, despite White House insistence the economy is sound. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: April, An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030, Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate). Part II: The Meridian Moves East, Climate Change Indicators: Ragweed Pollen Season. National health care expenditures will increase by 5.4% a year to exceed $6 trillion by 2028. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a modified U-shaped recovery. "Debt to the Penny." Some critics say this spending is not needed, given the lessened presence of the U.S. military around the world. This story appears in the April 2020 issue of Forbes Asia. "National Climate Assessment." Petroleum Exports Exceed Imports in September.” Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. These costs will rise from 17.7% in 2018 to almost 20% of total U.S. economic output over the next decade. One reason is the aging U.S. population and rising enrollment in Medicare. China became the world's largest economy in 2014. Low mortgage rates make this a good time to get a fixed-interest mortgage. This leads to illness and death, as well as damaged crops and dead livestock, plus power outages., Almost 40% of the U.S. population could be flooded from rising sea levels. Rising sea levels cause hurricanes and storms to push farther inland. Inflation returns after Donald Trump, worried about losing his reelection, fires the head of the Federal Reserve in the summer of 2020. Here are five predictions. By January 8, before news of COVID-19 started to leak out of China, the World Bank was forecasting that India’s economy would grow 5 percent and China’s by a healthy 5.9 percent. The COVID-19 pandemic will slow growth for the next several years. A crisis on this scale can reorder society in dramatic ways, for better or worse. You may opt-out by, EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation BrandVoice. A weak dollar makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflation. Inflation. The U.S. will rebound from a no-growth 2020 to 3% growth in 2021, but with it will revive a nasty and long-forgotten counterweight—inflation. National Association of Realtors. It is loosening this peg in its bid to allow the yuan to become a global currency. Cyberwarfare has become more of a threat. Climate.gov. Global Stock Markets Could Predict Economic Future Post Covid-19. Has Donald Trump Brought Back American Jobs? It's used more than any other currency for international transactions. Leftwing politics will become more extreme in 2021. Extreme weather caused by climate change is likely to worsen. Trees weakened by drought and pests have increased the intensity of these fires. Will warmer weather in the northern hemisphere slow the infection rate? Abby Joseph Cohen, advisory director and senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, says there is a growing consensus among analysts that by the end of 2021, the economy will return to where it was in early 2020. Narayana Kocherlakota is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Subscribe to Forbes Asia. And that became the business story of 2021. Astrological Predictions For Indian Economy 2020-2022 Future Forecast: It’s been more than 3 years Since Our Prime Minister announced the crucial demonetization and banning of currency of 500 and 1000 notes across all over the country. That's the lowest level since 1963.. Those who predicted Covid-19 would usher in a new lifestyle built around teleconferencing, virtual entertainment and still more e-commerce—Nesting 3.0, as one forecaster called it—will have forgotten a key lesson. People who buy them could end up paying more out of their own pockets. The economic future depends on the virus’ future. Hospitals transfer that cost to Medicaid and insurance companies. Social Security pays for itself, and Medicare partially does, at least for now. mayor, chief call plan to cut police funds 'untenable' "Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Summer Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-resonant Amplification." Gas prices are expected to remain below $3 a gallon through at least 2030. Lower gas prices can also drive down the price of groceries, which benefit from lower transportation costs. From extreme weather to rising health care costs and the federal debt, here's how all of these trends will have an impact on you. It could make health care more expensive for everyone. Some people are concerned that the real estate market is in a bubble that could lead to another collapse. Global warming destabilizes the climate and creates extreme weather., Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurance firm, warned that insurance firms will have to raise premiums to cover higher costs from extreme weather. People like to travel and convene. As people drop insurance, they are less likely to get preventive care. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. "Defense Budget Overview, United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request." "DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Proposal." They will transmit those costs to the insured, further raising health care costs. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. When will a vaccine appear? In October 2020, there was only a 3.3-month supply of houses in the United States. This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy. Reinsurance News. In 2019, the uninsured no longer had to pay the Obamacare tax. Which policies are best at slowing its spread (and do they vary by country)? The median core inflation rate is predicted to be 1.2% in 2020, 1.7% in 2021, 1.8% in 2022, … ... Markets are vast storehouses of data, analytics, algorithms and predictions of the near-term future. Money spent on defense increases America's debt. This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy. The economy has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Kimberly Amadeo has 20 years of experience in economic analysis and business strategy. Predictions for the post-COVID future of work. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. What is the fatality rate across different population groups? Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Higher interest rates would increase the interest payments on the debt. "The Great Inflation of the 1970s." Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product,” Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being.. In the long term, they should drop, thanks to lower oil and gas prices. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. The same amount of spending on mass transit created 19,795 jobs.. Department of Defense. If China’s exports decline, it could buy fewer U.S. Treasury notes. It also takes away from such key areas as health care and education. Those who predicted Covid-19 would usher in a new lifestyle … U.S. Government Accountability Office. "Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States." U.S. Energy Information Administration. That could turn off currency investors, who would prefer a higher rate of return for their dollar-based investments. In the long term, balancing the budget means spending cuts because Trump has cut taxes. U.S. Department of the Treasury. “Annual Energy Outlook 2020,” Page 18. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Four possibilities stand out, starting with an end in three months or so. The forecast offers a glimmer of hope of stronger, positive economic growth in the second half of 2021 in Indiana, setting up 2022 for positive economic output. "Climate Change." Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. The $27 trillion debt and federal budget sequestration that's reduced spending on some items mean that the U.S. really can't afford to wage large ground wars anymore., In March 2019, the government increased the Fiscal 2020 national security budget to $750 billion. The Department of Defense said that this increase will strengthen its competitive edge and help the military succeed by prioritizing innovation and modernization in war for decades to come.. "Consumer Price Index Summary." As those borrowers go under, it will damage banks' balance sheets just like subprime mortgages did during the financial crisis. "The Year 2040: Double the Pollen, Double the Allergy Suffering?" Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. "Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure," Page 1. With that summary in place, we turn to … Once a COVID-19 vaccine is widely distributed, housing demand will return to pre-pandemic levels. They fear that the U.S. wants the dollar to decline so that the relative value of its national debt is less. I'm also a regular panelist on cable news' popular business show, Forbes on FOX (with an average viewership of 1.2 million households per show in 2012), and frequent guest analyst on CNBC's The Kudlow Report. Let’s imagine that it is a year from now, springtime 2021. U.S. Energy Information Administration. In the U.S. and U.K., the 2020 recession was felt as a financial disaster for part-time and hourly workers. U.S. Department of the Treasury. Getty. Low-income families without insurance might use the hospital emergency room for primary care. "Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)." The debt level is not sustainable if interest rates were to rise. University of Massachusetts. The Federal Reserve and other experts predict the economy will remain subdued until 2021 or 2022. There are other long-term trends that also affect the economy. I'm also a regular panelist on cable news' popular business show, Forbes on. The U.S. government may have to divert more funds to pay off that interest. Be aware that, without regulation, many personal health insurance policies may not provide as much coverage as Obamacare plans. Higher temperatures have even pushed the dry western Plains region 140 miles eastward. The Fed knows this is how former Fed Chair Paul Volcker ended the stagflation of the 1970s. Businesses react to this uncertainty by hoarding cash, hiring temporary instead of full-time workers, and delaying major investments. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. I lecture up to 50 to 60 times a year on the innovation economy. The U.S. dollar value hit a high of 126.5 on March 23, 2020, as the pandemic sent investors scurrying to the dollar's safety. The bull stock market run will continue with ups and downs and the American spirit will fully return. Predictions for 2020: “Slowbalisation” is the new globalisation. The NAR expects sales to decline by 15%, even as prices rise. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. China will have a solid 6% year, up from 2.8% in 2020. With a virtually unlimited ability to print cash, and an election promise to spend trillions in new infrastructure, Trump managed to hang on and win reelection. Home prices will increase a modest 1.1% in 2020 as the pandemic and the recession both weaken demand. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. But that forecast comes with a stark warning. I'm the publisher of Forbes magazine, where I write a biweekly column called Innovation Rules. U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Federal Reserve's economic forecasts reflect a wide range of views about the course ahead. In some areas, the pollen season is now 25 days longer than in 1995. Pollen counts are projected to more than double between 2000 and 2040., Most areas of the country are experiencing more frequent and longer heatwaves. U.S. Energy Information Administration. American College of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. State economic forecast shows $641M budget surplus for '20-21 State's November spike might lead to Christmas restrictions Mpls. So will the unicorn herd. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. In the second quarter, it plummeted by 31.4%, but then it rebounded in the third quarter to 33.1%. In April, during the height of the pandemic, retail sales plummeted 16.4% as governors closed nonessential businesses. Furloughed workers sent the number of unemployed to 23 million that month. By October, the number of unemployed declined to a still-horrendous 11.1 million.. They may also increase the interest on the debt. In December 2019, the U.S. and China reached an agreement on Phase One of the trade deal in which China has committed to purchasing a substantial amount of U.S. goods and services in the next several years. Covid-19 will accelerate a rebalancing of global supply chains away from China and toward Brazil, India, Mexico and Southeast Asia. “Annual Energy Outlook 2020,” Page 4. Population: 3,014,000. “National Income and Product Accounts Tables: Table 1.1.1. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. It also lowers export prices, spurring economic growth. Brian Barnier is the Head of Analytics at ValueBridge Advisors, an editor at Fed Dashboard & Fundamentals, and a guest professor at CUNY. What Percentage of the American Population Lives Near the Coast? The world is upside down and sometimes it can be tough (really tough, if we’re honest) to stay optimistic and maintain sanity. The Federal Reserve Board. Millions of asthma and allergy sufferers must pay for increased health care costs. The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. 5. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. What Is the Current Fed Interest Rate and Why Does It Change? Global Change Research Program. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Anyone who claims to know the answers is guessing. Health care costs will continue to rise. The acceptance of this move of demonetization by our PM was the most … Global growth will be 4%, as pent-up demand and new vaccines power a recovery from the 2020 global GDP growth of 1.2%. RUSSIA AS WE KNOW IT ‘WON’T EXIST’ The next decade will see Russia “seeking to secure itself” … Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Global Change Research Program. The other reason is that it will take years for homebuilders to restore supply to pre-pandemic levels. Collectively they have been valued at over $2 trillion. Though leftists Jeremy Corbyn, in the U.K. in 2019, and Bernie Sanders in the U.S. in 2020, failed to get elected, their movements will have grown, the bitter fruit of the abysmal 2020 harvest. As a result, farmers used to growing corn will have to switch to hardier wheat., A shorter winter means that many pests, such as the pine bark beetle, don't die off in the winter. Nearly 3 out of 4 economists … U.S. New Bankruptcies Dip to Record Low Amid Federal Relief, How the Current US Inflation Rate Affects You and the Economy, The Real Owner of the U.S. Debt Will Surprise You, What You Need to Know About President Trump's Impact on the National Debt, Consumer Spending Increases 40.6% in Q3 2020, What You Need to Know About the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, How a Slowdown of China’s Economy Affects You. “Made in America” means higher costs because U.S. workers get paid more for their work than those in China. What will the world look like? "Climate Change: Global Sea Level." Part II: The Meridian Moves East." This will cap China’s growth potential in the years ahead. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. But in falling stock markets, investor horizons quickly shrink. The production of crude oil is expected to rise to 14 million barrels per day by 2022 and remain near this level through 2045. Shale oil has driven this growth since 2010. Demand is expected to remain subdued thanks to increased use of alternative energy., In 2019, the U.S. exported more oil than it imported for the first time since 1973. U.S. oil exports are expected to increase through 2033.. This announcement was abrupt and sudden and shocking for many people. This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP. "Employment Situation Summary." What Will the Economy Do in 2020 and Beyond? Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Summer Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-resonant Amplification, Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure, Wildfire Premiums Could Become a 'Social Issue': Munich Re Climatologist, Whither the 100th Meridian? The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that 13 million people could drop coverage by 2027. As healthy people leave the insurance system, it will raise costs for insurance companies. The World Bank. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Public events large and small—in sports, arts and business—were being cancelled. Global travel will have fully resumed. U.S. stock markets were down more than 20% from their February peak. The Effect of Presidential Economic Policy on the Economy, Top 10 Economic Predictions for the Next 10 Years, Extreme Weather Threatens the Financial System, Health Care Costs Will Continue to Increase, U.S. and Chinese Economies Will Be More Intertwined, The U.S. Will Be Involved in Fewer Ground Wars. As more people work from home, they desire bigger spaces.. The Fed can maintain confidence in the economy by demonstrating moderation, resulting in less extreme changes in public economic behavior. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. 2. Disagreements over how to reduce the debt may translate into a debt crisis if the debt ceiling needs to be raised. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. The Federal Reserve and other experts predict the economy will remain subdued until 2021 or 2022. The pandemic has also shifted homebuyer demand away from the crowded cities and to the suburbs. For his past columns and blogs visit our website at www.forbes.com/sites/richkarlgaard. The Federal Reserve has warned that climate change threatens the financial system. Extreme weather is forcing farms, utilities, and other companies to declare bankruptcy. They may diversify their portfolios with more non-dollar-denominated assets, such as the euro. As of September 2019, China's economic growth has been at its slowest since 1990. But the nation is now so large that it will continue to affect the U.S. economy much more than in the past. As an author and global futurist, he has published several books, the latest of which is Late Bloomers, a groundbreaking exploration of what it means to be a late bloomer in a culture obsessed with SAT scores and early success. Home prices will continue to rise in the long term, thanks to low interest rates and low inventory.